Sabres vs Flyers – 6 down 1 to go

Wow! I’ve been too busy to update after each game, but the truth is this has been a great series. From my point of view, I agree with the general consensus that the Flyers  have more “talent” on their team, but we should have known that going in.  Clearly the difference right now is the quality of the goaltending is being an equalizer. I have said to several people “switch the goaltending and this series is over in 4″, but the fact is that Ryan Miller is on the Sabres, and the Flyers can spout off on whatever they think whether the Sabres don’t “deserve” to win or not. The Sabres have won 3 of 6 games, and that’s what really matters. They were unable to finish off the Flyers on Sunday in what was from the outside of the series a fantastically entertaining game. (I myself was pretty much curled in a ball in the corner of the basement for much of the third period and overtime, but I digress.)

So, what do we have to look forward too in Game 7. The truth is, I have no idea. I suspect we will see a much tighter defensive game on both sides and would expect it to go back to being a low-scoring affair. But truthfully it could well be just the opposite. Regardless of who’s in goal for Philly, any of their goalies could come out with a terrible start. On the other side, being in Philly could rev the team up and allow them to jump to an early lead. Either way, high or low scoring, I expect it to remain a close game. All but 1 game was decided by 1 goal, and that game had an empty net goal to make it 2 goals.

Here’s a few things I DO know:

-The Sabres have only played in 7 game sevens in their 40 year history. This makes this a very special event, almost as special as playing for the cup – which they’ve only done twice.  

-I am not sure that “home ice” comes to much of an advantage. The home team is 2-4 in the series. However, I say that being one that would prefer being at home.

-The loss of Tim Conolly is more a case of losing a defensive/penalty kill mainstay. His offense game has been beyond terrible for most of the series, and a good portion of the season. It’s a good chance that hit was his last play in a Sabres uniform, and would probably be an appropriate way to go.

-For the record, I don’t think Richards should be suspended for the hit. Doesn’t make me hate the bastard any less, though.

-This series has done something I never thought possible…I hate Danny Briere. And yet I still wish he were a Sabre.

-Game 7s are a crapshoot. Ask me, and I’ll tell you this…every single playoff series is won by the better team, unless it’s a 7 game series. To get there, the team have to be pretty even to begin with, and then winning that game is pretty much a crap-shoot. While I give a slight edge to the Flyers based on the momentum from game 6 and home ice, I really do think it could go either way tonight.

-I cannot think of a game I have wanted the Sabres to win more since I became a season ticket holder than this one. They can go out in 4 games to the Capitals for all I care after this, if they take out these arrogant, self-righteous, pricks on the other bench.

I will be watching the game and clutching my couch cushions tonight. GO SABRES!!!

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Sabres vs Flyers – Game 1 Round-up

I am not sure I have anything insightful to say on this game, as anyone watching it would pretty much have the same opinion. The Flyers took the game to the Sabres for most of the first period, and the Sabres held them off. The second was a little more even, though the Sabres got in some penalty trouble during the period. The third period was the best for the Sabres, where they played pretty even until they broke through with a goal. From then on, they focused on defense, and did an excellent job in limiting the Flyers chances.

Defensively, you can’t complain to much about the Sabres. Early on there were some pretty intense offensive pressure by the Flyers, but managed to only rarely look overwhelmed by it. Miller proved why he should be back in goal when healthy. While he didn’t have to stand on his head, he made a number of very, very good saves to frustrate the Flyers.  Extremely good rebound control, and only the occasional over-positioning mistake, which has dogged him for much of the year.  Particularly good was the PK, and I am thinking of the Penalty that they killed late in the game where the Flyers really didn’t even get a good scoring chance.

Offensively, the Sabres disappointed…not because they couldn’t score, but because they couldn’t even really generate any offensive chances. The top two lines had perhaps three scoring chances between them. The best offensive line was Gaustad-Kaleta-Gerbe, who didn’t have a ton of chances, but at least kept the puck in the offensive zone by having some hustle to their game.  I understand that some of this was about keeping a more defensive minded game-plan, but if they don’t put any pressure in the Flyers zone, there’s only so much Miler can do to keep them in games.

One compliment I need to give them is they played a very physical game, at least toe-to-toe with the Flyers. This team will very rarely win the physical game, but they’ve been showing more of that of late, and enough so that you can feel encouraged that they won’t let the Flyers run all over them.

The nicest thing about winning that game is now ALL of the pressure shifts to the Flyers. The Sabres lose Game 2, it’s a matter of that they did their job and got one in Philly. The Flyers lose, and they are in a 2-0 hole, with 3 of the remaining 5 games on the road, and needing to win 4 of 5. Yes, last year they came back from being 3-0 down, and are certainly dangerous in any game, but this is a different situation against a different opponent, and I wouldn’t count on them doing that again.

That said, the Sabres cannot put up that same game and expect to win game 2…the offense has to provide some more pressure against them. They will undoubtably have to weather another serious storm in the first 10 minutes of the game, but if they can come out of that and get a lead early, I think the Flyers could really start to struggle.  But, with a little more offensive pressure and they play the rest of the series wit

GO SABRES!

Round 1 Predictions – the other seven match-ups

So, I already talked about my thoughts on Philly vs Buffalo and why I gave the pick to Buffalo. Here’s my brief comments on the other 7 match-ups, and how I think they stack up.

Washington (1) vs NY Rangers (8) – Washington was bounced two years in a row early, and they re-vamped their team to be more about defense. I think that in the minds of these players, a series win is almost as good as a Stanley Cup…they are going to be determined as hell. The Rangers played some strong hockey at the end, but have been struggling on the scoring sheet of late and have lost one of their top offensive weapons in Ryan Callahan. If this one goes too long I think it might favor the Rangers, but Washington is playing some great hockey right now, and I expect them to win this series.

Boston (3) vs Montreal (6) – If I wasn’t a Sabres fan, this would be the series to watch thanks to the ongoing bad-blood saga between the two. These are likely going to be tight low scoring very physical games. I think that scenario favors the Bruins.

Pittsburgh (4) vs Tampa Bay (5) – You gotta give the Pens a lot of credit, that they continued to be a top performer without Crosby or Malkin. The question is can that continue into the playoffs. Tampa also started to sputter late in the season losing 10 out of 12 games at one point, but seemed to get it together to win their last 7 out of their last 8 games.  And except for their loss in Buffalo, didn’t allow more than 2 goals in any of those games. This is not the one-dimensional Tampa team of old. Without Crosby, I am picking Tampa.

I don’t know the west as well, but I get paid to pick ‘em, right?

Vancouver (1) vs Chicago (8) – Vancouver not only had the top offense, top defense, stellar goaltending what’s not to like. Don’t believe the hype that getting Chicago is a unlucky draw for Vancouver. The Blackhawks stumbled through their last 10 games and couldn’t beat Detroit in a near must-win situation. This is NOT the same team that won the cup last year. Vancouver has also been ousted too early too often in recent years. Vancover wins this one going away.

San Jose (2) vs LA Kings (7) – After Vancouver, there’s little difference between the top teams in the West as they are all strong contenders. The Kings are young and up-and-coming, but I’m going to give this one to the experience and offense of the Sharks.

Detroit (3) vs Phoenix (6) – Man, what does Phoenix have to do to get out of the shadow of the Red Wings? It’s awful hard to pick against Detroit in the first round of the playoffs, and I’m not the man to do it.

Anaheim (4) vs Nashville (5) – I can’t imagine a series that I will watch less of than this one, not saying it won’t be good, but two teams that I have no interest in or know less about. Since I picked the top seed in the other 3 match-ups, I’m gonna say Nashville is going to win a rare playoff series…giving the 286 hockey fans in Tennessee quite a thrill.

Sabres vs Flyers Round 1 thoughts

Gosh, I got the match-up I wanted…and I’m still not sure it’s a good fit.

Let’s face it, the Sabres are playing some great hockey right now. They finished the season on their longest winning streak of the year, and were 13-4-3 in their last 20. Every season, there’s one team in the bottom tier that you could say “Oh man, I wouldn’t want to face that team in the first round of the playoffs”, and this year, that team is the Buffalo Sabres.

An interesting piece of fact:

First 20 games: 7-10-3 (17 pts)

Next 21 games: 11-8-2 (24 pts)

Next 21 games: 12-7-2 (26 pts)

Last 20 games: 13-4-3 (29 pts)

Yup, the Sabres were not only a better team in the 2nd half of the year, but they were a better team in each subsequent QUARTER. That sure makes them dangerous.

But, what about the Flyers. For a negative, you can kind of say they’ve been sputtering a little. The first half of the season saw them at 26-10-5 for 57 pts, with a second half slightly week at 22-13-6 (50 pts). (The Sabres had 55 pts in the 2nd half.)  In fact, they went 3-4-3 in their last 10 games, and 7-7-6 in their last 20 games. In addition, before winning their final game, they had lost 5 in a row. In addition, Chris Pronger, who’s a huge part of their defense, is unlikely to play at the start of the series. But, this is a very dangerous Flyers team. Their offensive weapons are deep, and their physical play is unquestionable.  You are not going to win many 1-0 games against this team.

The good news for the Sabres is that they aren’t going to win many games that way anyways. Their success this season is due to the surprising depth of their offense. They have 245 goals this season – 4th in the east and only 14 behind Philly for the lead. Buffalo statistically has a better power play, and an equal penalty kill to the Flyers.  And while Ryan Miller hasn’t had the stellar year of last season, you would be hard pressed to argue that Philly’s goaltending is better in any situation.

The Sabres biggest question mark in my mind seems to be their spotty defensive play. This was evident even in that final Flyers game when they allowed two goals in a less-than 2 minute span – while they were on the power play. Their defenseman are generally young and make a lot of mistakes. The Flyers will make them pay a number of times this series.  I also think Danny Briere will be a serious force in the series. He is a heck of a playoff player as it is, and playing against the Sabres will have him at the top of his game. 

So, really I find this a hard series to pick. The one thing I feel confident in is that it won’t go quickly. I would be surprised if it is less than 6 games, and could easily see a 7 game series. I am going to pick the Sabres only because of the momentum they have going in. The talent level on the Flyers is greater, but the way the Sabres are currently working, I really can’t see them not making it through at least one round.

I can’t wait for this one….last year I was really looking forward to the playoffs, but it was so unmemorable for Sabres fans. (Plus I was gone for a good portion of the series.) I’ll be going to Game 3 of the series, and watching all the others on TV.

Regular season wrap-party in Columbus

Again, I continue with poor / intermittent updates of this blog. As the season wrapped up over the weekend, it’s been a great few months for Sabres fans. I am going to try and get a few quick posts in this week.

The Sabres finished solid with 4 wins – 2 of them in overtime. The week started out with a HUGE win in Carolina. Truthfully, I didn’t think they played particularly well in the game, but were able to hold off Carolina for the final 20 minutes and win on a pinball shot in OT. I can’t feel too bad for Carolina, and the Rangers opened the door for them this week, and they managed in their last game to trip across it. Interesting, of the teams with final “must-win” games, only the Rangers managed to win theirs, with Carolina, Dallas, and Chicago all falling flat when their backs were against the wall.

The win in Carolina set up needing 3 points out of the remaining 6, and I headed down to the arena for the Tampa Bay game on Tuesday. It might not have quite been a playoff atmosphere, but it was close. It was an interesting game that the Sabres came out strong  the first 4 minutes, and then played steady for the remainder of the first two periods, and eventually built a 3-1 lead. A bad giveaway early in the 3rd led to a 3-2 score for much of the third, and sitting in the crowd it got a bit discouraging that the Sabres were not really pushing on the offense at all. But after a while, I got to realize that they were basically completely shutting the Lightning down. In fact, the Lightning had no shots on goal for the last 8 minutes of the game.  The crowd left the building on a high with Vaneks’ semi-empty netter.

On Friday, the family hopped in the car after work and headed for Columbus. Having just obtained a smart-phone, we were able to listen to the game by streaming it and plugging the phone into the car speakers (thanks WGR App). The game was another fun one. The Sabres had a major defensive laspe for about 2 minutes in the 2nd period, but otherwise played strong, and Nathan Gerge again came up big for the team. You quite honestly have never heard a bigger roar for a tie, when the Sabres clinched the playoffs…and then an OT win in the game led to an total eruptionof noise and clinching of 7th place.

As we headed for the game on Saturday, I found it funny. Had they lost the night before, with the Rangers winning Saturday afternoon, it would’ve been a whole different vibe for this game. There were thousands of Sabres fans in attendance, and instead of being worried about whether the team would make the playoffs, it was a huge party for the fans. (I would put the number at about 4,000 if I had to guess, close to 1/4 of the building.) In Columbus of course they were out of the playoffs, but all the Sabres fans gave the hometown fans something to cheer for. Overall, I think the Sabres fans seemed well behaved from what I saw…cheering for their team. Only a few plastered drunks, and even they weren’t acting that bad.

I feel for Columbus. They’ve had a team for 10 years, and the initial excitement of just having a team has obviously faded, and without any playoff success in their 10 year historyI think it is dragging on the fan base. I talked with one of the ushers a bit about it, telling me it was great to see a sell-out. He said earlier in the week they had the Ducks in, and barely had 10,000 in attendance. His other comment was “Hockey has a hard time in the South”. I said, “really? I don’t really think this is the South?” He said, “Anywhere south of Cleveland I mean…”

Here’s what I say to that: “Columbus…you’ve got Tim Horton’s coffee and Labatt Blue beer in your arena, you are clearly not ‘in the south’.”

Their arena is absolutely beautiful….much better than HSBC, especially up on the upper level concourse, which in Buffalo reminds me of a prison ward. I liked some of the game affections even though it was all a little too loud. The ice girls and all the giveaways (which might’ve been for fan appreciation night). Also liked the Tank/T-shirt cannon that drove around the ice firing T-shirts into the upper deck. They had a band playing songs somewhere that they put on the Jumbotron during intermissions and commercial breaks. Like it during intermissions, stupid during commercial breaks. Overall, it was a nice place to watch a hockey game. And what’s up with the weird mascot? I think it was supposed to be a bee/yellow jacket of some sort- get it, “bluejacket’ / “yellowjacket”. I guess its not more of a stretch than Sabretooth is, but it just looked stupid. I went to RPI, and our mascot was also a bee. (Because we were the “engineers”, but also called the team “the swarm”.) and I can say from experience that a stinging insect as a mascot is pretty lame. (Sorry Georgia Tech fans…)

In the end, the game didn’t really matter as Montreal won to hold onto 6th, but it was still a lot of fun. Craig Rivet helped the Sabres one last time by cross-checking Tyler Ennis for a 5 minute major late in the game that allowed the Sabres to score 2 power play goals and go up 5-3. It was hard to judge the team on this game…they allowed way too many chances from the Blue Jackets.  Again, it was a nice win, but it hardly mattered.

It all starts on Thursday – I’ll be back later in the week with my playoff predictions.

Why does the West have more points?

OK – this may be an obvious question…but why does the west have more points?  The Buffalo Sabres are sitting on the eighth spot in the east with 81 points and fans are excited. If they were in the Western conference with the same record…they’d be in 11th place and be 4 points out of a playoff spot, with 3 teams in a tie for that 8th spot ahead of them.

First off, how much better is the West, really. Well, as of yesterday’s games through March 22nd, the teams in the west and east have both played 1097 games (OK the actual # of games is really HALF that, at 1097 TOTAL games, but that’s not important here). The West during that time has amassed 1246 points to the East’s 1215 points, a difference of 31 points, or 2.07 points per team, or approximately ONE regulation win better (or two overtime wins). One win over the 82 games may not seem like a lot, but it is surprising that the entire division would be a whole game better.  So, why is the West better than the East?

Well, there are really only two possibilities for point dispargement: OT wins/losses or West vs East match-ups. 

OT wins/losses

I looked at the data from the same day, March 22nd, and found that the Eastern teams have played in 270 overtime games out of 1097 games or 24.6 %, while the Western teams have only played in 264 (24.0 %). Therefore, the disparagy for overtime games is slightly in the opposite direction…the East has 6 more points cumilative than the west.

East vs West

The means there’s a diference of about 36 points between the west and the east when they play eachother. Well, I went back and looked at the division standings. The West has record of 137-81-38 in 256 games against the East, giving the east a record of 119-103-34. Therefore, the West has 18 MORE wins against the East…which account for 36 points. And while the West also has four more OT losses than the East does, which should give us another 4 points, making the total difference 40 points.  This doesn’t completely make sense, as it SHOULD be 36 points. Where’s the difference.

Well, it lies in the hidden “bonus point”. There were 72 games that went to overtime between the two coferences – a whopping 28 % of them. Because the Eastern teams won four more of them than the west, that means they got 4 more “bonus points”  from those overtime games. That’s the four point difference.

Should we take anything away from the fact that 28 % of the East vs West games went to overtime? Well, subtracting them from the total, I calculate that only 23 % of the intra-conference games went to overtime, which is a pretty statistically big difference from 28 % – about 22 % more of the games went to overtime. Why is this? The only thing I can think of is that there is less concern when playing the opposite conference of the team getting the “loser point”, and for that reason as a tie game approaches overtime, the players are more likely to “play for the tie”.

What does all this really mean for the NHL and the Sabres? Well, not a lot. It indicates the western conference teams are slightly better than the eastern conference teams on average, though only about 2.5 % better. However, this doesn’t mean necessarily that any given Western team is better than any given Eastern team, and really tells us nothing for the Stanley Cup Finals, which is the only place that these teams might meet in the playoffs. What it MIGHT just mean is that a Eastern team doing a Western road trip has a harder time with the adjustment and travel than a Western team doing an Eastern road trip.

But, what does it mean for the Sabres? Well, the big picture might tell you that it’s agood thing that they are in the Eastern conference. However, if you dig a little deeper, you’ll find out the Sabres are 9-7-3 to date against the west. In 17 games, they have 21 points, or 1.24 points per game. Against the East, in 56 games they are 27-23-6, with 60 points or 1.07 points per game.  So, they actually have a better record against the west, mostly due to a higher % of “loser points”.

Truth is…none of it means a lot. What matters is making the playoffs. And then you need to win 4 out of the next 7.

Off 3-day break, Sabres Destroy Atlanta – final push underway

Not only have I been a bad blogger of late, I’ve been a bad Sabre fan…I haven’t been watching a lot of games, or at least a lot of the whole games. Of the last 4 games, I’ve only seen one, and that was Ottawa last Sunday because I was there.  (My daughter got on the Jumbotron – twice!) The other games I’ve only been able to catch bits and pieces.

I continue to like what I am seeing from this team, though. The loss in Toronto was disappointing that they allowed a lead to slip away, but they came back the next day and got the job done against Ottawa – which is pretty obviously a very bad team right now.  The loss to Carolina, while disappointing, seemed inevitable to me…it was there 9th game in 15 days folks.

They followed a three day break with a pretty good effort yesterday. They have Nashville coming in off a win over Detroit, and a team like the Sabres fighting to get in. Should be a good game.

Every week I’m more convinced they will make the playoffs. It’s now (realistically) down to three teams for those last two spots, and I still say the Sabres are playing the best of the three. They don’t have a strong set of opponents down the stretch here, and I say SIX wins out of eleven games gets them in. And I just want them in…I could care less at this stage about 7th vs 8th. I fact, if we get 8th and play Philly…I would LOVE that. There’s no pressure as an eighth seed, and while Philly has a lot of talent, i don’t think they are unbeatable. If the Sabres spoiled Philly’s playoffs for 1 million flyers fans and then went out in the 2nd round, I would as happy as a clam.

 I’ve got two more games to go to this regular season, and it’s starting to look like we are heading for Columbus for the regular season finale. I’ve had it pencilled in as a possibility all year, and we just got a call from friends in Columbus. My wife’s goddaughter is having her first solemn communion on April 10th, and we’re invited…and the Sabres and playing in Columbus on April 9th! Call it fate (as I did) or a sign from god (as my wife did) but it sure feels like we should go to the game, don’t you think?

Sabres Take out Flyers: 4-0-2 A.P. (After Pegula)

OK, I’m just going to say it…this was the Sabres best game of the season. Yeah, they’ve blown out a few teams over the year, but they took on a top team that did NOT in anyway give them an easy ride, and they managed to not only come back from an early 2-0 deficit, but also when the Flyers tied it up 3-3 on a short-handed goal, they didn’t crumble. They played phyiscally, they played hard, and they won a game in a well-deserved fashion. Yes, they could have lost it easily enough – but the point is they didn’t…back in December, or even maybe January, they don’t win that game.

I really, really like the effort that they have been putting in just about every game. Even in games where they spend a good portion scrambling, it no longer looks like they are taking time off. It’s funny (and I think I’ve said this before) that one of the biggest hangovers of their President’s Trophy season (06-07) was that they were SOO good that year, that they started taking 30-40 minute a game in cruise control, could get down by 2 or 3, and come back in a 10-minute stretch and win.  That’s why they struggled through the playoffs - they continued taking portions of games off…After that, they continued to behave that way for YEARS. Finally, finally, this season they seem to be putting that behind. A sixty minute effort – for the last two months anyways – seems more the norm than the exception. They still have the two major flaws of the season – not enough finishers – and a scatterbrain defense….but the addition of Boyes, who might actually BE a finisher – might be huge. (They currently have two – Vanek and (I can’t believe I’m saying this) Stafford.)

The last week or so, I have been convinced for the first time that this team WILL make the playoffs. The Rangers look to me like the team that’s going to fall out. Carolina is stronger, but still not very good, and gets those Florida / Atlanta games in the east.  I also think Toronto is going to come up just short, even though they’ve been coming on strong of late. (The list of potential playoff teams is down to 10, New Jersey recent good surge is too little too late.)

A quick comment on the Carolina game on Thursday. It was a HUGE game, until it went to overtime…and then it suddenly became less so…going from a 4-point swing game to a 2-point swing game. Fans in Buffalo were so negative after that game, but I saw a good effort and a game that could have gone either way. Right now, Sabres are 1 point back of the “Canes with a game in hand.  I give them almost zero chance of winning tomorrow @ Minnesota coming off today’s win, getting 4 points out of this weekend would be huge. They already have 10 of the last 12 points, and are on a 90 point pace for the first time this entire season. I am looking forward to the rest of the season, and the Sabres could be a dangerous opponent in the first round. (I still don’t expect them to go far…but I’ll take any playoff rounds at all the way this season started.)

The start of the Pegula era

Man, there’s been so much going on lately, and I have been so poor at commenting, i wonder if I still have ANY readers. I was away on vacation from February 18th through the 28th, and while I was in touch with the Sabres world, I didn’t have the ability to really comment on it.

Of course, while I was gone, three fairly big events happened in the Sabres world. The first being the largest: Terry Pegula and his family taking over the ownership / management of the Sabres. A lot has been said elsewhere about his desire to spend money, his being a fan of the team, and the whole comment “the Sabres are about winning a Stanley Cup.”

First of all, I want to say that 75 % of what’s said by anyone involved in any team is meaningless. For instance, the comments about winning the Stanley Cup. First of all, is any owner NOT going to say this? What makes Terry Pegula stating the fact any different from any other owner.  Perhaps a team like the Phoenix Coyotes wouldn’t be saying this right now – as in “Our main goal is not to collapse as a franchise” – but in general, all owners are going to make these statements.  So, as far as this goes, don’t tell me, show me.

But, there’s an awful lot to like in what Terry Pegula has said. In particular, the emotionality he projected at his press conference, it projects that fact that he really, really cares and understands what it means to be a fan, and what it would mean to this city and its fans to put a winning product on the ice. I beleive whole-heartedly in his sincerity at to what he wants to do…but that still doesn’t mean that he can pull it off.

Even the discussion of “spending what it takes”. That’s good, more money available for the scouting department, player developement, and coaching should improve their chances…but again, it needs to be done WISELY. There are plenty of examples of teams spending like crazy and not being successful, and that’s BEFORE the days of a salary cap. 

I can’t know this yet, but I think Terry Pegula understands this too.  So far, he’s brought in people (Ted Black and Ken Sawyer) that have experience in an organization that have been successful. He has to this point held on to Darcy Regier and Lindy Ruff, and while I am personally of the opinion that Darcy Regier should be dismissed early in the off-season, I can respect his decision not to respond with an immediate dismissal of either of these Sabres mainstays. I would hope (and again this is just supposition) that he wants a chance to get an impression on these two men and how receptive they are to his way of operating.

As stated before, much of what is said in public is meaningless…so when Terry Pegula says “Darcy Regier ain’t goin’ nowhere!”, what does that really mean? All it means is “I’m not firing him right now.” And what sense would replacing Regier at this stage do? The least necessary a GM is within an organization is front the end of the trade deadline to the start of the off-season. The one exception being I suppose he could start contract negotiations with UFAs, but typically if it hasn’t been done by now, they are more than likely going to wait until the season is over. The same goes for Regier comments of the last week. Of COURSE he’s going to say how much he likes working with the new ownership. Picture this in your own life….your current boss lets it be known he’s going to retire, and the new boss comes in with his staff.  What are you going to say when the company newsletter comes to interview you a few weeks later…”Geez, I’m not sure about these guys!”…of course not, you will praise them effusively…right?

But, the one comment Darcy has made that sticks with me is when talking about proposals for an expanded scouting department…I’m paraphrasing here, but he said that Mr Pegula felt that the original proposal was too help back, and he asked Darcy whether this was so, and Darcy said that he was so used to being told “no” that he didn’t feel comfortable putting out what he most wanted.  This to me, says an awful lot about how the old regime works, and how the new regime will work. Whether Darcy (or Lindy) have a place in that regime has yet to be determined in my mind, and I am pretty confident in ownerships mind. But, I wouldn’t put it past Darcy being here for a while longer, but would expect the leash to be much shorter than it used to be. Unfettered, he will be expected to deliver an improved hockey team in short order.

I’d like to comment on something that is almost to me the MOST telling thing about the start of the Pegula era, that this is a family affair. He introduced his wife and children at the press conference, and not just a “here’s my wife and kids” sense, but in a “these are the people that make up my family” sense. I get the feeling that his wife will be involved in the organization, and that while his kids won’t be specifically involved, they will be a presence. In particular, his children are providing a window into what may be the first “media generation” ownership. Two of his daughters have been posting heavily on Twitter and Jessie Pegula has begun writing her own blog which includes commentary and videos of her and her family. (I hesitate to provide the link to it, but it isn’t hard to find.)  Perhaps I am reading too much into it, and perhaps it is just coming across as excitement at the start of a new venture, but you get the feeling that this family will be involved with this team for a very, very long time. 

So, early on I mentioned 3 events that occurred while I was gone, though the other two are to me strongly linked with the new ownership. The first is the waiving of Craig Rivet, and the second is the trade for Brad Boyes.

Let’s face it, Craig Rivet is at the end of his career. He really isn’t of too old an age to play, but in the last two years he has certainly lost his ability. I don’t know if it is injury or a loss of desire, but whatever the reason, the Sabres were paying him $3.5 million to sit in the press box. What the Sabres did in waiving him and allowing Columbus to pick him up is let Columbus take on half of his cap and half of his salary.  This is something they NEVER did under Golisano/Quinn.  But, doesn’t it make sense…if your going to pay a guy $3.5 million not to play on your team, isn’t it better to pay him $1.75 million not to play on your team? In truth, you are saving money, and freeing up a roster spot. Why not? Again, it only makes sense, but you really get the feeling  the “old Sabres” would never have done it.

Then, the trade for Brad Boyes at the deadline. Yes, we can be disappointed that they didn’t send any of the dead-wood on this team out the door, but doing so is harder than it looks to the casual fan. And, you can tell that they basically decided “No rental players, but we want to improve this team.” And that’s what they did with Boyes. Exactly what we’re going to get with him is a big question mark…he broke out well in his third and fourth professional seasons, scoring 76 goals in two seasons between 2007 and 2009. Then, last year he dropped to 14 goals and 42 points, and this year has seen only a slight improvement, with 13 g, 43 p in 63 games. However, I think this was a good move. While his contract is a tad big, it’s not over burdensome ($4 million per) and he has one more year on his contract.) Can he return some of his goal-scoring touch in a different system? Even if he provides 25 goals next season, it’s an addition that prove more than worthy of the 2nd round pick that was lost in the trade. (In my view, ANY non-first round pick is up for grabs, as prospects are so hard to predict and so far from being worth-while.)

So, for all that, I didn’t even touch on the teams play or there chances for a playoff berth. I think anyone would think they have a realistic shot. The team sits 2 points out of a playoff spot, with 2 games in hand. Even the seventh spot is well within reach, and in general they are playing pretty solid hockey. Of the teams vying for those spots (Carolina, NY Rangers, and Buffalo) they are statistically tied, but having two/three games in hand is actually a good thing in this case…as if you think about it, they have the opportunity to get 15 % more points than the Rangers do. (The Rangers can at most get 34 more points, while the Sabres have a shot at 40.) The Rangers and Hurricanes have been moving backward of late, while as the Sabres have been moving forward.

All-Star break – am I underestimating this team?

I went to the game against the NY Islanders on Friday. I haven’t been so frustrated at a hockey game in a long, long, time. A lot of people just look at “their” team when they watch a game and will say “Oh, they’re playing terrible” when in fact they are just being outplayed. This was not the case on Friday, where the Islanders in no way looked like a good hockey club, yet they still managed to make the Sabres look bad. I wanted to write this team off right there.

BUT – they are 8-3-1 in their last 12 going into the All-Star break (with two of those losses to the Islanders), and I decided to take a closer look at their records, much like I did at the half-way mark.

The Sabres are currently at 23-21-5, with 51 points in 49 games. This is a 1.04 Point Per Game (PPG) pace  that will only get them to 84 points at the end of the season.

However, there is another way to look at this. Their first 14 games they were 3-9-2, for only 8 points (a dismal 0.57 PPG). Since that streak, they’ve played 35 games. During those 35 games – or almost half the season – they’ve gone 20-12-3 with 43 points, a pace of 1.23 PPG. THAT pace for an entire season gives them 100 points at the end of the year, and a definite playoff spot.

SO – the Sabres have been playing “like a playoff team” for 35 games now. And while fans have ridden them for not being able to win 3 games in a row, another point during that span is they have only lost two games in a row TWICE, and have NOT lost three in a row once.

If they were to continue to play at their current pace for the remaining 33 games, they would finish with 92 points, and likely with the eighth playoff spot.

More interesting tidbits – if we look at the teams they are competing with, how have they done in their last 35 games (an arbitrary # I know, but chosen to match the Sabres pace):

Atlanta, currently in the 8th spot, is 16-13-6 in their last 35 games – a 1.09 PPG pace that would have them finish the season at 88 points. (They are actually also averaging 1.08 PPG for the WHOLE season…)

Carolina, currently in 9th, but with an overall higher PPG than Atlanata, has played at 17-12-6 in their last 35, a 1.14 PPG pace (overall at a 1.10 pace). Again, finishing the season at their current pace gives them 92 points.

Florida is 16-14-5 in their last 35, a mere 1.06 PPG pace, which also is not good enough to make the playoffs.

Interestingly, looking within the division, Montreal is only playing at a 1.14 PPG pace for their last 35 games (18-13-4) and while that is good enough to clinch a playoff spot easily, it is below the current Sabres pace.

So, what to make of all this? Well, the Sabres are in a group of four teams (Carolina, Atlanta, and Florida) that are most likely to make the final playoff spot. Amongst that group – the “best” team for the last 35 games (or almost 1/2 a season) is the Buffalo Sabres. Statistically, this gives the Sabres a pretty good chance for getting in the 8th seed spot.

Whichever team DOES make it needs to play well the last 30+ games of the year.  However easy it has been to dismiss this team, the fact can’t be disputed that they have been playing “well” lately. With only 30 games remaining, they can ill afford to have any sort of losing streak of any size. A record of 18-10-5 (or similar) likely gets them to a playoff spot. A difficult but not impossible goal.  They also have EIGHT (8) head-to-head games left against these 3 teams.

So, even though I’ve been ready to write them off a dozen times this year, I suddenly feel like a playoff bearth is still possible, even with all this teams flaws. I don’t think it will happen – I still think it will be Carolina in that spot – but it is maybe enough hope to get me watching the games again. It at least makes me feel good for the next 8 games until they play Pittsburgh coming out of the break and get crushed.